Best Place to Be Is in the Flight to Quality Vehicles

May 15, 2019


Because of the volatility and political uncertainties of the U.S.-China trade situation, now is a good time to avoid stock index futures and instead focus on the long side of flight to quality vehicles, such as the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen, the interest rate futures market and gold.


U.S. stock index futures declined after China reported surprisinglyweakergrowth in retail sales and industrial output for April. Overall retail sales in April rose 7.2% from a year earlier, which is the slowest pace since May 2003. This compares to 8.7% in March and forecasts of 8.6%.

U.S. retail sales declined 0.2% in April from a month earlier. Economists predicted a 0.2% increase.

The Empire State manufacturing survey in May climbed to a six month high of 17.8 from 10.1 in April. The estimate was 9.

Industrial production fell 0.5% in April, which compares to expectations of unchanged and capacity utilization was 77.9 % in April, which compares to the estimate of 78.7%.

There are three 9:00 reports. The May Atlanta Fed business inflation expectations report, which was 1.9% last month. The May housing market index is expected to be 64 and the March business inventories report is anticipated to show a gain of .1%


The euro currency is lower in spite of a report that showed Germany's economy expanded by 0.4% in the three months to March from the previous quarter, after narrowly avoiding recession late last year.

Lower crude oil prices pressured the commodity currencies, the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar.

There was some support for the Canadian dollar on news that the annual inflation rate in Canada accelerated slightly in April, increasing 2.0% on a year-over-year basis. The result was in line with market expectations.


Flight to quality buying is coming in across the board.

Richmond Federal Reserve Bank PresidentTom Barkinwill give remarks on Sentiment and the Real Economy at 12:00.

Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 77% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points or more at its December 11 policy meeting, which compares to 72% yesterday.


June 19S&P 500

Support 2805.00 Resistance 2853.00

June 19 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 97.180 Resistance 97.550

June 19Euro Currency

Support 1.12020 Resistance 1.12530

June 19Japanese Yen

Support .91320 Resistance .91960

June 19Canadian Dollar

Support .74140 Resistance .74440

June 19Australian Dollar

Support .6914 Resistance .6954

June 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 149^2 Resistance 150^10

June 19Gold

Support 1291.0 Resistance 1307.0

July 19Copper

Support 2.7100 Resistance 2.7450

June 19 Crude Oil

Support 60.72 Resistance 62.03

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.