AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market 3 to 4 Lower

Corn futures are trading 3 to 4 cents lower this morning. They saw 4 to 5 1/4 cent gains in most contracts on Monday. Front month ethanol futures were up 1.11% on the day, helped by sharp gains in crude oil and a 20 cent per gallon jump in gasoline futures. The afternoon Crop Progress report indicated 68% of the US corn crop was dented as of Sunday, with 18% mature (vs. 39% avg), and 4% harvested (7% avg). Conditions were unch at 55% gd/ex, as the Brugler500 index saw a 1 point bump to 348 on a 1% move from good to excellent. The weekly Export Inspections report tallied corn shipments in the first full week of the 19/20 MT at 421,803 MT. That was down 31.09% from the week prior and less than half of the same week in 2018.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Market Down 7 to 8 Cents

Soybeans futures are mostly 7 to 8 cents lower this morning. They closed Monday with 1 to 2 cent gains in the front months. Soybean meal were down $2.70/ton, with soy oil 85 points higher on tight NOPA stocks. USSEC indicated that China may be in the market for 1 to 3 MMT, not just the 600,000 MT rumored last Thursday and partially confirmed by USDA. NASS reported that 95% of the US soy crop is setting pods and 15% dropping leaves (lagging the 38% avg) as of 9/15. Condition ratings slipped 1% to 44%, with the Brugler500 index down 5 points to 345. USDA reported soybean export inspections of 666,490 MT in the week of 9/12. That was a drop of 31.85% from the previous week and 15.34% below this week last year. The monthly NOPA crush report put August crush 168.085 mbu, vs. trade ideas at 162-163. That was just 0.008 mbu below July and 5.79% above August 2018. NOPA soybean oil stocks were at 1.4 billion lbs at the end of August, the lowest since November 2017 and the smallest August stocks since 2014. That’s an indication of strong use when crush was high but oil stocks were drawn down.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Market Correcting 1 to 5 Cents After Monday Gain

Wheat futures are 1 to 5 cents lower since settling most contracts 2 to 9 1/4 cents higher on Monday. Chicago SRW is the weakest this morning, with MPLS spring wheat the firmest. While the spring wheat harvest is typically 93% complete by 9/15, NASS reported just 76% of the crop was out of the field. In their initial winter wheat planting progress release, they showed 8% of the crop in the ground, with 12% the average pace. Prospects for very low crop revenue insurance guarantee levels aren’t exactly encouraging planting, either. The lateness of the soybean harvest is also likely to limit winter wheat planting. Weekly Export Inspections data showed a total of 459,258 MT of wheat shipped during the week of 9/12. That was up 11.31% wk/wk and 11.70% larger year/year. YTD shipments are up 22.13% from the same time last year at 7.47 MMT (274.48 mbu).

Source: Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market Weaker on Higher Harvest and Product Weakness

Live cattle futures posted 7.5 to 65 cent losses in the front months. Feeder cattle futures were down 35 to 85 cents in most contracts, with nearby Sep up a nickel. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was UNCH on September 13 at $136.09. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Monday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 26 cents at $220.62, with Select boxes down a sharp $2.03 @ $196.57. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter @ 117,000 head. That is up 4,000 head from the same day last year and a 2,000 jump from the previous Monday.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Still Future Bullish

Lean Hog futures were down $2.85 in nearby October, with other front months up 75 cents to $1.975. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another 98 cents at $59.71 on September 12. The Fresh Bacon Index was down $9.21 from the week prior at $136.29. The USDA pork carcass cutout value FOB plant was down 45 cents on Monday afternoon at $68.66. The national average base hog value was 13 cents higher at $45.08 on Monday. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 487,000 head on Monday, 73,000 head above the same week in 2018 and 2,000 head above last week. The Chinese Ag Ministry now says the country’s hog herd is 38.7% smaller than last year, with sow numbers 37.4% lower.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market Backs Off Along With Crude

Cotton futures are trading 14 to 59 points lower in Turnaround Tuesday action this morning. They were a marginal 15 to 37 points higher in most contracts on Monday, with nearby Oct down 3 points. Crude oil was up a sharp 12.34% following damage done to Saudi facilities over the weekend. It is down ~1% this morning as the Saudis indicated they will quickly complete repairs on some of the damaged equipment. After the close, NASS indicated that 54% of the US cotton crop with bolls open by Sunday vs. the 47% average, and 9% harvested compared to the normal 8%. Conditions were down 2% in the gd/ex categories at 41%, with the Brugler500 index UNCH from the previous week at 328. The Cotlook A Index was up on September 13 at 73.55 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 52.28, effective through Thursday.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com