Top Farmer Midday Update 5-15-19

Corn: Corn futures are trading with solid gains again today, with Jul up 7-3/4 to 3.76-1/2, Sep corn is up 7-1/2 cents to 3.84-3/4, and Dec corn is up 6-3/4 to 3.94-1/2. The 7-day forecasts are showing heavy rains for the majority of the Corn Belt, exacerbating fears of lost acres or reduced yield potential. Informa lowered their corn acreage estimate this morning to 90.7 mil acres, 2.1 mil acres below the USDA estimate. New crop Dec corn traded as high as 3.97-3/4 today, trading above its 200-day moving average for the first time snice March 29. Prices have fallen off of the highs, but the gains so far this week have been very impressive and speculative funds may start moving out of short positions very quickly. Funds bought 45,000 contracts of corn yesterday and are thought to bet net short about 274,000 contracts.

Soybeans: Soyb3ean futures are trading moderately higher today on follow through from yesterday's sharp rally. Jul beans are up 5-1/2 cents to 8.37, Sep beans are up 5-1/2 cents to 8.49-1/2, and new crop Nov soybeans are up 5 cents to 8.61-1/2. South American soybean offers are rallying, and Trump is reportedly planning a meeting with the Chinese President Xi and the G20 Summit next month. Informa raised their soybean acreage estimate today to 86.4 mil acres, 1.8 mil acres above the USDA's current estimate. Nov soybeans traded as high as 8.71-1/2 this morning, testing their 20-day moving average resistance level for the first time since April 15. Fundamentals still look mostly bearish, so fund short covering looks to be the source of a recent bounce in sympathy with corn. Funds bought about 22,000 contracts of beans yesterday and are thought to be net short about 165,000 contracts.

Wheat: Wheat markets are showing solid gains again this morning, with Jul Chi wheat up 8-3/4 cents to 4.57-1/4, Jul KC wheat is up 6-1/2 cents to 4.15-1/4, and Jul spring wheat is up 6-1/4 cents to 5.29-1/2. The Jul Chi wheat contract is trading above its 50-day moving average for the first time since February 7. Open interest has been increasing on the recent bounce, and fund short covering has not been a major theme thus far. Informa lowered their spring wheat acreage this year to 12.4 mil acres, 470,000 acres below the USDA estimate. Australia will reportedly be importing wheat this year for the first time in a decade. Funds bought about 10,000 contracts of wheat yesterday and are thought to be net short about 78,000 contracts.

Cattle: Cattle markets are mixed to mostly higher this morning, with Jun lives up 30 cents to 109.80, Aug lives are up 30 cents to 107.02, and Oct lives are up 45 cents to 106.92. May feeders are up 50 cents to 136.50, and Aug feeders are down 55 cents to 142.15. Jun lives again made new lows for the move today, but have since rebounded as prices are sharply oversold. Beef values are still drifting, and today's Fed Cattle Exchange showed 280 head sold of the 376 head offered at a weighted average price of 117.00. Feeder cattle contracts are mostly lower today, but have come off of the session lows nicely.

Hogs: Hog markets are showing triple digit gains again today, with Jun up 1.45 to 90.57, Jul hogs are up 1.07 to 91.12, and Aug hogs are up 1.05 to 92.22. Jun hogs are testing their overhead 20 and 50-day moving average resistance levels. Jun hogs have not traded above that level since April 29, so a move above the positive development. China's sow herd was down 22.5% in April vs last April, and carcass values are rallying. There is talk that U.S./China trade tensions may be easing slightly, also a positive sign.

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